Domestic blitz might limit Labour damage

The greatest piece of unasked for, and unwanted, advice so far this year was delivered by Joan Burton last week.

The Minister for Social Protection helpfully suggested to her boss, Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore, that he'd been long enough rowing his boat on the big oceans of the world and it was time to return to shore, to a "domestic" ministry, as she suggested.

Burton, of course, is also deputy leader of the Labour Party and has made no secret about having leadership ambitions. Those ambitions might actually coincide with a job opportunity sometime in late May or early June. But Burton, of course, is too polite and too canny to profess any interest in a vacancy that might or might not arise.

Will Labour fare badly in the election? Is the Pope a Catholic? I'm afraid it's not going to be the party's greatest hour.

There's nothing personal in it. But voters tend to use these second-tier elections as an excuse for giving the government of the day a boot. And no shoe leather will be spared in administering it to the junior coalition party.

If you are reading the Passion of Christ this weekend I would think the character named Judas would best represent the Labour Party for former supporters (although a more secular example might be more appropriate).

In any instance, the party is going to struggle. The recent Irish Times/Ipsos/mrbi poll was quite telling. It showed the party support at eight per cent.

On a regional breakdown, it was slightly up in Dublin at eleven per cent, which suggests it was in the low single digits in Connacht.

Many of the gains the party made in the local and European elections in 2009 are going to be reversed. Like the Greens the party may find itself without a single European seat and a much diminished representation at local government level – down below 100 seats despite an overall increase in county and city council numbers.

Crucially in Dublin the party may go from first or second in the four local authorities to fourth, or even fifth – a very sorry state of affairs.

Labour has a very enthusiastic and articulate candidate in our sprawling European constituency – which we all call the Malin M50. But in terms of an uphill struggle, Lorraine Higgins would find it easier to solo the North Face of the Eiger than win one of the four seats.

If you look through parties who have experienced dismal mid-term elections, the reaction is relatively predictable. A sense of urgency verging on panic becomes apparent. There are heated parliamentary party meetings and national executive meetings at which blame and recrimination are thrown about like confetti at a wedding.

Then the party leadership vows that it will respond by a process involving both renewal and catharsis. The renewal bit usually involves a nationwide tour by the leadership where they effect sincerity and 'listen' to the concerns of the grassroots.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.