Budget detente confirms there’s no election on immediate horizon

Budget Day is one of only a handful of days in the political year when the Dáíl chamber is literally standing room only. It’s not as if they’ve come to witness an inspirational and evangelical speaker. If you are looking for entertainment, it’s usually in the responses.

For the last few years, Fianna Fáil – because they are accomplices, or accessories before the fact – can’t really stick the boot in so their speeches have tended to be bland.

You always know an election budget. The debit column is massive with spending galore and tax cuts, with a big deficit being run.

So if that is the yardstick, there is no election – Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are happy to stick it out for another year.

There is more spending than we anticipated, with cuts in income tax and the USC take. A total of €1.5 billion for new spending and tax cuts is a fair amount but not enough to tip the balance in favour of an election in the near future.

In the lead-up, there was a tug-of-war between the VAT restoration versus increases in the price of diesel and fuel.

VAT was the loser, despite junior Coalition partners the Independent Alliance lobbying for the lower rate to be retained.

Paschal Donohoe presented a binary option – if VAT stays the same, then diesel and carbon tax will have sharp rises.

The prospect of a diesel increase at the petrol pumps would have been very unpopular and hit a large majority of motorists.

Fianna Fáíl had demands for affordable housing, flagged since September (that’s a €300 million package).

Some Independent Alliance asks, including the granny flat allowance of €15,000 have also made it in.

That’s quite a good idea, allowing downsizers the opportunity of splitting their home to allow others live there.

Even with the main opposition party abstaining, the numbers are always tight. It was interesting to see Peter Fitzpatrick, in his new status as an Independent on the Opposition benches.

All eyes too were focused on other Independents like Michael Lowry, Noel Grealish, Michael Harty, and the Healy Raes.  The excise measures were the the only Budget Day votes and it was never likely that votes on increases for tobacco and cigarettes would be lost.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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