Economic advisor gazes into crystal ball to come up with twelve key forecasts
A leading figure in one of the country’s top economic consultancy operation has forecast that 2020 will be for another strong year for Ireland.
Cathal MacDonagh, Managing Partner in Galway for EY, projected 40,000 more jobs, a small government surplus and GDP growth of 3.2% - but all based on the avoidance of a no-deal Brexit.
That outlook is slightly cooler than the two buoyant years Ireland has just enjoyed, though this is not entirely unwelcome as the pressures of fast growth are beginning to become more visible. The predictions assume the avoidance of a no-deal Brexit in 2020.
“Despite weakening global conditions, we believe the Irish economy is entering 2020 in rude health and expect domestic strength to continue,” said Mr McDonagh.
“We predict the labour market will slow only modestly as supply tightens and wage costs increase but with an expected 40,000 net jobs created and a 4% rise in tax receipts, we see a positive economic climate in what will be an election year.
“The rate of job and wage growth should support a healthy 2.4% growth in consumer spending in 2020. With the national savings ratio at a healthy level and confidence largely restored in the property markets, fears over Brexit and the global economy appear to be only having a modest effect on consumer behaviour.”
The upbeat outlook is tempered somewhat by the fact that Ireland still has €175 billion in debt and the challenges presented by extremely fast rates of growth.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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