Things that did and did not come as a surprise in 2018

Politics always throws up surprises – and 2018 was no exception – but one of the advantages of observing this political game for a long time is that there are some phenomena that don’t spring any surprise at all. With that in mind, here are two on either side of the equation for the year that was – two that did surprise, and two that didn’t.

The Abortion Referendum was a surprise; not so much in terms of the result but in the scale of it – and in the mature manner that the debate and this most sensitive of issues was handled.

I am old enough to well remember how divisive the 1983 referendum to insert the eighth amendment was.

I remember all that happened in between too, the X Case, and the 2001 referendum that was very middle ground, but was beaten by a strange combination of strong pro-life, and strong pro-choice, groups.

All of these events were potent reminders of how divisive the issue was. It got to a stage where I was reluctant to engage in debate on it - it was just too barbed.

Over the past thirty five years society had changed a lot. It had become more urbanised and a generation and a half had taken their lead on these issues from other cultures and societies rather than Ireland.

Still, abortion is still a very difficult proposition for many people. Sure there was a generational difference. But going from an almost absolute ban to termination upon request up to twelve weeks represented a huge change.

When the referendum campaign started, I believed that it would probably be a Yes but a marginal Yes. Younger people would have little difficulty with twelve weeks. It would be more difficult for some people from their mid-40s up to get over that hurdle. So what surprised me? Well, firstly the campaign was not nasty, which was a surprise. In addition, that gave scope for a very thorough examination of the issues that went beyond slogans.

And while many undecided voters had a huge issue with the twelve week limit, they ultimately believed it was preferable than the unbending (and, in their view, inhumane) alternative.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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