Taking a stab at the next year on the political front
It was the Spanish philosopher and poet George Santayana who said that those who ignore the lessons of history are condemned to repeat them – and that covers just about every journalist I know. Particularly when it comes to redicting the outcome of elections – it’s always tricky, especially with multi-seat constituencies and proportional representation, involving transfers.
In 2016, for example, Maureen O’Sullivan got less than 2,000 votes in Dublin Central and still got elected on the back of a slew of transfers from half a dozen defeated candidates.
But sometimes, the trends are obvious – like a week out in 2007, when it was clear that Fianna Fáil was going to win a third term, or in 2011 that Fine Gael and Labour were going to make huge advances.
My late colleague Noel Whelan would publish the Tallyman’s Guide to the General Election in advance of each election. It was a brave piece of prediction, based on polls and local election results.
There was always the peril that he would get things spectacularly wrong. And he did on several occasions.
In the last election, Noel seriously under-predicted the Fianna Fáil comeback. At the same time, he was on the money on the Labour Party. He said the party would lose all but eight of the 37 seats it had won in 2011. The party’s hierarchy was outraged at such a claim.
Until the eve of the election, it was predicting it would return with between 12 and 15. In the event, it ended up with only seven.
I also underestimated Fianna Fail in 2016 and overestimated Fine Gael.
Despite patchy records, there are some trends that are unavoidable and predictable. The first is that the two big parties could both gain seats in the general election, whenever it occurs.
It’s certainly not going to happen in early autumn. But my own read on what’s happening in Britain is that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is trying to force an election.
To read Harry McGee’s full column, buy this week’s Connacht Tribune.