Sinn Fein the big winners before a vote is even cast
World of Politics with Harry McGee – [email protected]
Saturday’s vote will tell, of course – but Monday may well become the day when we saw the real manifestation of Sinn Féin's political rise in southern politics. The Irish Times Ipsos MRBI poll showed that, five days out from polling day, Sinn Féin was the most popular party in the State – and at 25 per cent, clearly ahead of Fianna Fáíl at 23, Fine Gael at 20, the Greens at 8, Labour at 4, Social Democrats at 2, and Others – including small parties with one per cent support – at 20.
That was buttressed by the TG4 poll for Kerry on Tuesday which showed Pa Daly of Sinn Féin topping the poll, ahead of the Healy Raes. A month ago even Sinn Féín was writing off his chances.
If Mary Lou McDonald had an uneasy interview with Bryan Dobson on Monday it was more than compensated for by other events.
Fine Gael meanwhile had a different trajectory, putting in its worst showing since December 2014 when it scored only 19 per cent and May 2008 when it scored 20 per cent.
Its general election strategy is now in tatters and it has launched a big attack on its rivals in a desperate attempt to recover ground.
Fianna Fáíl is treading water but believes it has a latent support out there who have yet to show their hands.
But for Sinn Féin, the graph has risen dramatically the other way, an eleven point gain since October.
Only twice has it come so close, getting 24 points twice, once in May 2012 and again in October 2018 – and there has been no sign of a slide so far in this campaign.
Conventional wisdom might dictate a levelling off and a drop for SF in the last days – but then it might even maintain the momentum and have the problem Labour had in 1992…loads of support but not enough candidates.
And that is the proof that even Sinn Féin did not see it coming. It thought the election would see it lose seats so it slimmed down its slate of candidates to respond to that.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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