Political shoegazing at the start of a busy year ahead

I have a friend whose family business was shoes. He was so steeped in the tradition that he once told me that his first impression of anybody new he ever met was always determined by the shoes they wore. Superficial? Maybe – but it might just be as good as any other method.

My own world view of everything is coloured by the years I have spent looking at the world through the prism of politics. When I think of 2025, the first thoughts that spring to mind are what’s going to happen politically during the year – and, as we start the New Year, here are a few pointers.

1. The new Government

It’s going to be very different from the last one, even though Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are still there.

The obvious change is that there are no Greens. Instead, it looks likely that there will be independents. The Social Democrats hung in before opting out, claiming the two bigger parties have not got close to their “deal-breakers”. They include the full implementation of SláinteCare, ambitious housing targets and a full Minister for Disabilities.

That leaves the Independents; the Regional Group on nine led by Michael Lowry and then there are the two Healy-Raes. Will the Government do deals with both groups to give themselves a super-majority?

What price will the Independents extract? A few national issues where there will be an Independent gloss — roads, disability, healthcare, housing — and then a host of individual constituency deals.

On top of that a number of ministries. One senior ministry, a junior ministry and then a few Minister of State positions. From a local perspective, you can take it that Seán Canney and Noel Grealish will both be in the mix for something.

1. The shape and colour of the Dáil

Neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael are of the right, in the European sense. Even though Fine Gael is a member of the European People’s Party, it is one of the ‘wettest’ members. Both parties are centrist and both can’t be said to be anything other than big State parties.

Still, it won’t stop the Opposition from describing them, and decrying them, as right-wing parties, even though that’s not technically true.

That said, most of the Independents who go in will be centre, or centre-right, in terms of political disposition, but in that soft Irish way where they try to be all things to all people.

Pictured: President Michael D. Higgins...entering his last year in office.  Photo: Avi Ratnayake.