FF faces into difficult future irrespective of Coalition deal

Back in April, Simon Coveney said that it would be the middle of June before a government was formed – a prediction that really irked Fianna Fáil, because they could not understand the delay. From the time both parties had sat down to talk, Fianna Fáil had believed Fine Gael was hedging its bets, and playing out a long game with a possible view to a second election.

I’d say there was a little bit of that in it. Politics is a Darwinian construct, and it’s partly about the survival of the fittest. So self-preservation and self-advancement are built in the genes of every party. If you don’t win seats you can’t represent and you are redundant.

So Fine Gael was obviously very conscious of the dynamics that have been at play since February 8. The party finished third in the general election and the realistic thing for the party to do was to go into opposition.

But then the coronavirus pandemic became a reality in Ireland and when that tsunami hit politics as usual was caught up in its wash. Suddenly we had a caretaker government – with at least seven ministers, and ministers of State, who were not even elected – trying to address the emergency. Now, the guys who looked like they were going to be dropped from the panel were given some unexpected game time – and they excelled.

The mood of the electorate has changed since February. Politicians know that if an election were held tomorrow, the results would be vastly different to February.

Sinn Féin might not perform quite so well. Fine Gael would do much better. And Fianna Fáil would see its alarming downward spiral continue. In two recent opinion polls, the party has scored 14 points and 17 points in terms of public support. It is down to single digits in Dublin.

The February election was the strangest one that I can remember. We were not in a crisis like we were in 2011. But there was a real mood for change.

For the first time, we saw that the old fealties that saw generations of the same family voting Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were broken.

Secondly, there was the continuing failure to really grasp the nettles of housing and health – by confronting not only the major reforms but also by taking on vested interests.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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