Last chance saloon for Kyne in Galway West
After a bland, uneventful selection convention, Fine Gael, as expected, picked a vanilla candidate, Seán Kyne, to contest May's Galway West bye-election.
The delegates – fewer than 150 of them in Salthill last Sunday – remained loyal to long-serving Seán, who is never going to set the world on fire with charisma, but he's a safe pair of hands.
Not that members had much of a choice. City Councillor Eddie Hoare withdrew, citing the time commitments involved. But those commitments hadn't changed since his nomination papers were signed and so the cynics among us must speculate that there were alternative reasons for pulling out.
The most obvious being he wouldn't win. Hoare, likeable and all as he is, hails from a city branch with a handful of members. That meant he couldn't outpoll Kyne in a popularity contest where the Conamara candidate had more branch members signed up. Best for Hoare to pull out than to show how little support he had but why bother at all, and why not sit it out altogether?
One theory was that Hoare allowed his name go forward to lay down a marker for the next General Election. And if by chance Kyne withdrew – as Hoare did – and did not force a vote at convention in Salthill Hotel, the former Galway footballer could have become the candidate by default. A win-win.
Eoghan Gallagher, a very late entrant into the race, put a spanner in the works, though.
Gallagher, a former president of Young Fine Gael, was never going to beat Kyne. But by putting forward his name at the eleventh hour, the Claregalway man forced a vote and removed any possibility of Hoare getting the nod by default, through a late Kyne withdrawal. Our Fine Gael spies said the vote was overwhelming. Kyne got 110 votes, Gallagher got 22.
There was no shame in defeat for Gallagher, who signalled that he is in politics for the long haul and his name will almost certainly appear on the ballot paper in the next Local Election to Galway County Council in Athenry/Oranmore.
Kyne said afterwards that he was looking forward to the campaign – the first mistruth of the campaign! The Moycullen man does not enjoy elections – does any politician? – but he's fighting for his political life.
The former Government Chief Whip and current Leader of the Seanad, is the most experienced candidate declared so far, having twice served as a TD. But he's also the Government party candidate. And Government candidates tend not to win bye-elections. Kyne speaks like a Government spokesperson, which might please party leader Simon Harris but it's not buttering parsnips with an electorate eager to give Government a mid-term kick in the ballots.
Expect Kyne to adjust his messaging - if the handlers in headquarters who will descend on the constituency allow it.
The stakes are high. If he loses – even admirably, like in the 2024 General Election – Seán Kyne is unlikely to get another chance at a Dáil.
Calleary’s poisoned chalice?
Party leadership ambitions of Gaeltacht Minister Dara Calleary could be determined by how Fianna Fáil fares in the Galway West bye-election. The Mayo TD, who is popular with Galway grassroots, is among the frontrunners to succeed long-serving party leader Michéal Martin, if Martin ever bows out!
It makes sense then, that Calleary was appointed Director of Elections for Fianna Fáil in the bye-election but it could be a hospital pass.
Galway West was traditionally a Fianna Fáil stronghold in the old two-and-a-half party system and for many years, held three seats here. But all changed utterly after the economic crash. And the lack of a succession plan for when the constituency’s most popular performer, Éamon Ó Cuív, retired has come home to roost.
John Connolly fended off the challenge of political novice and celebrity candidate Gráinne Seoige to take a Fianna Fáil seat in the 2024 General Election.
But the failure of Dev Óg to nurture upcoming talent in Conamara in particular, means the party isn’t spoiled for choice for bye-election candidates. There’s even loose talk now of running two County Councillors – Cillian Keane in Oranmore and Máirtín Lee in Conamara. That could be a genius move – like the PDs three-candidate strategy that launched Noel Grealish’s Dáil career. More than likely, though, it will be viewed as Fianna Fáil throwing in the towel for this bye-election to focus on grooming a candidate to join Connolly at the next General Election.
Councillor Alan Cheevers in City East has potential but has been sending mixed messages about his intentions; Councillor Peter Keane in City West is quiet about his. Fianna Fáil is unlikely to win the bye-election – unless it pulls a rabbit out of the hat before nominations close next Thursday. Calleary’s job will be about saving face – the party’s and his own, as he eyes Martin’s job.
Labour’s way
The Labour Party is hosting an appreciation bash for Michael D and Sabina Higgins tonight, Friday, in the Hardiman Hotel, meaning the city will be awash with comrades, including leader Ivana Bacik. That’s good news for Cllr Helen Ogbu, Labour’s Galway West bye-election candidate whose Saturday canvass will be boosted by the presence of TDs, Senators and councillors from all over the country here to pay their respects to the former president.