Connacht’s European destiny is still in their own hands

As of now, Pat Lam’s men look set to qualify for the last eight with a victory of any kind barring an unlikely set of results, but let’s explain some of the permutations just so everyone is clear.

If Connacht do win and fail to secure a four try bonus point, then there is a chance that such a result won’t be enough. For that to happen one of the following two scenarios would need to play out.

Firstly, Edinburgh would have to lose at home to Bordeaux but still secure two points from the game (a four try bonus point and a losing bonus point) on Friday while, secondly, Lyon would have to beat London Welsh in Oxford, scoring four tries and bettering Connacht’s margin of victory by 28 points or more on Sunday afternoon.

So for absolutely certainty, a bonus point win is required at the home of group strugglers La Rochelle. That won’t be easy and seems even unlikely as the French side will have plenty of pride and determination on home soil. Even a win is far from certain.

If Connacht make the quarter-finals, they’ll more than likely face number one seeds Gloucester on the first weekend in April. Keep an eye out for Cardiff’s result in Grenoble (Saturday, 2pm) however, as in the unlikely event of the Welsh side losing that by more than eight than all of a sudden a bonus point win for Connacht would bring them to seventh in the seedings,  and that could mean a much more enticing trip to Newport to face the Dragons.

Still with us? Well, the only other thing to tidy up is the feeling out there that this away quarter final sandwiched in between crucial Pro 12 games against Munster (away) and Ulster (home) might be an unwanted distraction from the main goal of the season. There is merit to that argument but competitive instincts within the squad and the opportunity for more TV broadcast exposure in Europe on a big weekend leaves one feeling that ‘Connacht inc.’ would relish an extra game, no matter how daunting.

Eagles

If you’re in Galway on Saturday afternoon, we highly recommend heading to the Sportsground to watch the Connacht Eagles take on the Germany national team. The visitors are warming up for the European Nations Cup and will provide a novel and testing opposition to Nigel Carolan’s Connacht’s development squad.

The good news for Pat Lam is the fact that openside flanker Jake Heenan is on the mend and expected to feature in that game along with winger Tiernan O’Halloran. If both players come through unscathed, they should be in the shake up for the crucial trip to Llanelli in mid Febuary. Heenan in particular will be a huge boost to back row forward resources.

For more, read this week’s Galway City Tribune.