Budget was always set to be more bland than brave

We play the same game every year in the run-up to the Budget – endless speculation about what will be in and what won’t be in. And there are always leaks but last year we had a torrent.

This year has been different again; if you examine the three-page “confidence and supply” deal between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil there is a specific reference to “no surprises” in the Budget.

So before Michael Noonan and Paschal Donohoe uttered a syllable on Tuesday afternoon, we all kind of knew what was coming.

They had about €1.2 billion to swill around, most of which went on spending. On the tax side, there was an incentive for first-time house buyers (harshly criticised by Fianna Fáil for targeting the demand side rather than the supply side).

There was also some reductions in USC (half a percent shaved off three rates); relief for the self-employed; a reduction in the rates of CGT for businesses being sold; and upward changes to thresholds for inheritance tax.

Perhaps the biggest story on the spend side was a universal childcare package, worth over €100 million.

Most families, with children in care for 40 hours a week, are now entitled to an extra €900 each year. That rises to €8,000 for the least well-off. It was more generous than predicted.

There was last minute wrangling over the commencement date of the €5 increase for pensioners, carers and those suffering from disabilities. However, despite threats from Fianna Fáil, there was compromise, with the increase kicking in a little later in the year.

The reason for that was that if it had commenced on January 1 it would have broken the bank for Donohoe. By delaying its introduction he could get the costs down for 2017. When the full-year cost kicks in in 2018, all things being equal, there will be more money in the economy (and in the Budget) to comfortably accommodate those increases.

The only ‘aul reliable’ that got a kicking was tobacco with the price of a packet of 20 cigarettes increased by 50 cents. There was also funding to recruit more Gardaí, teachers and frontline health staff.

The whole thing was more or less out there for the past few weeks, though there was some horse-trading over details. Fianna Fáil needed to get its spake in (it will claim credit for a lot of the education sections).

So too did the Independents and the Alliance specifically secured a reduction in prescription charges for the over-70s after a last-minute request ahead of the budget.

The likes of Sean Canney and Kevin Boxer Moran also made sure that Programme for Government items relating to the West of Ireland, particularly to do with flooding and rural renewal, were looked after.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.