Connolly’s Áras hopes rise on Mary Lou’s exit

The Galway West TD was bookies’ favourite several weeks ago, with her odds of winning the race for the Áras quoted as 13/8 and 11/8.

But the Independent candidate of the Left – who is backed by Labour, Social Democrats, People Before Profit, Solidarity, and Independents – slipped back to 5/1 early last week and was available at 10/1 by the weekend.

Her odds improved to 7/1, with confirmation on Monday from Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald that she was not contesting.

A spokesperson for Catherine Connolly’s campaign said opinion polls, rather than bookmakers’ odds, were a far better gauge of public voting intentions.

On this score, the Connolly campaign was buoyed by an Ireland Thinks opinion poll for the Sunday Independent last weekend that showed she was on 20% support and in a three-way battle with the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates.

“Election betting odds are a poor guide to probabilities. Odds respond to the amount of money being placed on individual candidates,” a spokesperson said.

When Heather Humphreys was selected for Fine Gael, and Jim Gavin announced his intention to run for Fianna Fáil, “it’s likely that both have attracted significant betting activity from their supporters in recent days”.

“This will shorten the odds on those candidates significantly,” a spokesperson for the Connolly camp said.

“Until the ballots are counted, the best guide to public opinion is the scientifically conducted polls conducted by the likes of Red C and Ireland Thinks.

“Catherine has recorded strong scores in each of the polls so far and was just one point off the lead in the most recent Ireland Thinks poll,” they added.

Last Sunday’s poll had Connolly on 20%, the same as Gavin and just behind former Minister Humphreys on 21%.

The Connolly campaign announced last weekend that its fundraising merchandise was selling strongly, and ‘Connolly for President’ jumpers had sold out.

Pictured: Campaign...Catherine Connolly.