Galway West dogfight adds air of uncertainty for last two seats
World of Politics with Harry McGee - [email protected]
Once upon a time, Galway West was one of the most predictable constituencies in the countries, a stronghold for Fianna Fáil. A whole political generation passed with only Padraic MacCormack the lone standard-bearer for Fine Gael.
The arrival of the Progressive Democrats in 1987 changed the complexion of the constituency. Bobby Molloy’s defection from Fianna Fáil essentially cost the party’s its former dominant position. Molloy’s personal vote in the constituency has outlasted the existence of the PDs with Noel Grealish holding on to the seat for 16 years now.
Fine Gael has been the dominant party since 2011. That said, the constituency is reflective of modern Ireland, more fragmented, and therefore less easy to predict.
Fine Gael won two seats out of five in 2016. In the run-up to that election, huge boundary changes saw the constituency lost territory to the east of the city and gain a swathe of south Mayo.
John O’Mahony moved south from Mayo. His presence created internal tension and rivalry within Fine Gael which probably spurred it to retain its two seats.
Unusually, the constituency returned two Independents. There is now a definite left wing seat in the constituency.
Labour’s dismal performance in 2016 helped Catherine Connolly win a seat for the first time. Grealish, who has next to no national profile, illustrated how effective a local constituency operator he is, coming in second.
Eamon Ó Cuív topped the poll and was easily re-elected with an impressive 14 per cent of the vote.
And when you look at the Fianna Fáil figures for 2016, the party achieved 23 per cent of the overall vote, only two per cent behind Fine Gael. But because there was such a gap between Ó Cuív and the other two candidates, there was never a prospect of either of them bridging the gap.
The next election – wherever it is – is going to be complicated, even though there is a strong chance we could be left with an ‘as you were’ situation – two Fine Gael, one Fianna Fáíl, and the two sitting Independents.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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