Poll underlines changing Irish political landscape

Fianna Fáil was at 15 per cent in the latest opinion poll published by the Business Post last Sunday; that was not a new low for the party - it also scored 15 per cent in a poll in 2024.

The poll was not much better for Fine Gael, which was marginally up at 18 per cent. Sinn Féin was at 24 per cent — riding high enough relative to the other parties, but nowhere near the 30-plus polling it enjoyed for periods between 2020 and 2025.

But the support levels for the rest were interesting. The Social Democrats continue to be the flavour of the month, though that description scarcely does justice to a party that has been performing strongly for a couple of years now.

It remains untested in government, but its brand of left-of-centre politics, its liberal outlook and its broad appeal continue to attract significant support — mainly, I suspect, from a younger cohort.

It is doing twice as well as the Labour Party, which has the same number of seats. Labour has also tried to renew itself, but it remains more closely associated with the establishment. It has not fully worked through the experience of coalition between 2011 and 2016, and its recovery has therefore been less consistent.

So what do we make of all this?

Polls taken in the middle of an electoral term do not really tell you very much. They offer, at best, a broad-brush picture of the lie of the land.

What they do show, however, is that the two big parties of the Civil War era are no longer dominant. At best, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are now mid-sized parties.

Sinn Féin sometimes appears to have the potential to become the sole large party in the State, but it repeatedly falls back, largely because of a lingering reluctance among voters.

That reluctance is partly about legacy, but it is also about positioning. Sinn Féin is a pragmatic party and can be populist. It shifts gear frequently and changes direction often.

And for a party whose core, defining objective — a united Ireland — is well understood, it can sometimes be difficult to discern what else it truly stands for, or how deeply it believes in the other projects it pursues.

Pictured: Minister James Browne...difficult brief.