Plenty of permutations in expanded Galway East

Between now and the election, I will be looking at constituencies in the bailiwick of the Connacht Tribune, principally Galway East and Galway West, but also Roscommon-Galway and Mayo (sure, we could not leave out Mayo!).

It will run over three weeks, but not consecutively, in the run-up to the election.

Before I go any further, here’s the small print. Predictions may go up and down in value the closer we get to an election. And the biggest fly in the ointment would be in Michael Fitzmaurice opts to run in this constituency as opposed to defending his seat in Roscommon/Galway.

In any event – with or without that added dimension – Galway East is shaping out to be one of the most interesting constituencies in the country.

At least the Electoral Commission has remedied somewhat the crime that was perpetrated in 2016 when Galway East was sheared almost in half and swathes of territory around Ballinasloe, Mountbellew, Glenamaddy and north of Tuam were hived off to the latest new constituency involving Roscommon: Roscommon-Galway.

It left Paul Connaughton Jr and Micheál Kitt with the terrible prospect of seeing their heartlands sliced and diced. Kitt retired while Connaughton Junior lost out, with Ciarán Cannon holding the sole remaining Fine Gael east.

In 2020, the same TD who won in 2016 were returned in the guise of Cannon, Independent Seán Canney and Fianna Fáil’s Anne Rabbitte.

But Sinn Féin’s Louis O’Hara gave them all a shock, coming in second in the first count – Rabbitte actually finished fifth. She was more transfer friendly than O’Hara (she also had a running mate in Donagh Killilea who transferred 2,500 votes to her). Still, she had only 400 votes to spare.

So there have been big changes to Galway East since 2020 with the Commission restoring many electoral districts in the North and Northeast of the county back to Galway East.

The upshot is that it is now a four-seater – and with Ciarán Cannon one of the 18 Fine Gael TDs retiring, that means there are two seats up for grabs.

Pictured: Pete Roche shoulder-high after his victory in the local elections - is more of the same on the cards in Galway East? Pic Gerry Stronge