Fine Gael leadership race all over bar the shouting

Taoiseach Enda Kenny, with Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald, launching The Irish Times Nealon’s Guide to the 32nd Dáil and 25th Seanad. The book is edited and published by Tim Ryan, Oireachtas Correspondent for the Connacht Tribune, and can be bought on the internet at www.nealonsguide.com or at selected bookshops.

placeholder image — Taoiseach Enda Kenny, with Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald, launching The Irish Times Nealon’s Guide to the 32nd Dáil and 25th Seanad. The book is edited and published by Tim Ryan, Oireachtas Correspondent for the Connacht Tribune, and can be bought on the internet at www.nealonsguide.com or at selected bookshops.

World of Politics with Harry McGee – [email protected]

How good a Taoiseach will Leo Varadkar be? Clearly, a big majority of his Fine Gael parliamentary party think he is the right choice and will ascend seamlessly to the role – but it’s not quite as simple as that. Because you can have all the attributes – intellectual girth, communications skills, decisiveness, authority – and still not make it in the top job.

Look at the last two incumbents in the role and their relative performances. Nobody expected too much of Enda Kenny and he was a successful Taoiseach when all is said and done. Brian Cowen had all the gifts seemingly yet his time at the helm was disastrous.

Of course you are not comparing like with like. Cowen came to the job just when everything that had been built up by the State imploded. Kenny came when the slump was at its lowest and the only way was up.

That said, Cowen flailed around and never succeeded in persuading people he was out there fighting on their behalf. Humility was never his strong point and he just could not bring himself to do stuff that he didn’t like doing. His communications strategy was a disaster.

In contrast, Kenny applied himself to the job and kept on going even when he received debilitating knock-backs. There are still many failures (the three H’s in particular: health; housing; and homelessness), but overall, his tenure will be seen as a success. We presume it will be Varadkar because the race looked over before it even began. The party changed its rules for electing a party leader. In the old days, it was the parliamentary party (its TDs, Senators and MEPs). Nowadays it’s split into three electoral colleges: parliamentarians; councillors and members.

It’s not an even split. The TDs, Senators and MEPs get a say worth 65 per cent of the total vote; the members get 25 per cent and the poor old councillors are only worth ten per cent.

There are 21,000 members and over 200 councillors but only 73 in the parliamentary party. That means that every vote of a TD or Senator is worth 740 members or 20 councillors. So obviously if a candidate was in a position to persuade enough parliamentarians, the contest would be more or less over.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.