Drilling down to determine how the west will be won

Back in 2011, Fine Gael performed an electoral feat in Mayo that may never be surpassed; the party took four seats out of five, on the back of Enda Kenny’s leadership and the collapse of Fianna Fáil.

But the tide that brings a party to power will always ebb – and Fine Gael has not emulated that feat in the two elections since then.

It was not helped by the fact that the constituency of Mayo went from five seats to four in 2016, with big swathes of South Mayo moving into Galway West.

It still remained the dominant party, however, winning two seats last time around when Fianna Fáil only held onto one.

Now there are big changes afoot. The constituency has gained a seat and perennial poll-topper Michael Ring has announced his retirement after 30 years in frontline politics.

Across the way in Roscommon, there was also an incursion across the county border in constituency carve-ups. The problem was that Roscommon took out a very big chunk out of Galway East to create a new constituency, Roscommon/Galway.

The overall population of Roscommon is not big enough to sustain three seats. It’s been yoked with Leitrim and Longford in the past.

Neither were very happy with the arrangement – nor was the maroon and white. Galway East was reduced to a three-seater. The county boundary was breached.

Like Mayo, there are big changes afoot. Roscommon/Galway remains a three-seater and, as its name suggests, it still has a portion of Galway – mostly the east and northeast, including the town of Ballinasloe. But Galway East at least has got some territory back and is now a four-seater.

Big changes too in personnel; the dominant political personality of the constituency for a generation, Denis Naughten, has announced his retirement at the age of 51.

Michael Fitzmaurice was making noises for a long time about moving back to Galway East – he is from Glinsk after all. But he has stayed put, a wise move on his part.

Pictured: Lisa Chambers...will she regain a Fine Gael seat in Mayo?