Crunching those numbers across Galway and Mayo

Last week I touched on the prospects of independents in the counties where the Connacht Tribune spreads its tentacles.

This week I'll have a more general look at the state of play and look at who looks vulnerable and who might cause upsets in the vastly revised constituencies.

We'll start with Galway West which has remained as a five-seater and taken in a bit of South Mayo, which isn't great for either Galway West or South Mayo.

There are two outgoing Fine Gael TDs, and one each from Fianna Fáil, Labour and Independents.

Of those, you can take it Éamon Ó Cuív will retain his seat and there is a guaranteed Fine Gael seat – although who will get it is a complicated question.

After that, I would say that Noel Grealish should be returned. He's not going to join any alliance and his own bailiwick around Carnmore survived intact in the constituency changes.

So that's three. What about the other two?

Well I think the two seats that will be in play are the Labour seat and the second Fine Gael seat. Derek Nolan did very well in 2011; he comfortably made the transition from councillor to TD and has acquired a strong national profile.

But unless Labour recovers remarkably in 2015, he is in trouble – irrespective of what miracles he can perform local and nationally. As we have found out before when a Spring Tide becomes a neap tide, you are going to be washed out no matter what.

And that brings Catherine Connolly into the reckoning. She has built up a very solid reputation as an independent councillor since leaving Labour and will pull a strong vote in the city and some in Connemara (she has very good Irish which gives her a profile sa Ghaeltacht.

So will Sinn Féin and its standard-bearer in the constituency in Senator Trevor Ó Clochartaigh, a former Independent and Labour Party member. He's very articulate and fronts for the party in a lot of its Irish-language endeavours and also on the Diaspora. His cause will be helped by the election of three Sinn Féin councillors in the city, giving the party a springboard for a biddable Dáil seat.

The problem faced by Ó Clochartaigh is his location. There are a lot of candidates in Connemara and it will be hard for him to draw a huge amount of votes from Sinn Féin natural target there, Fianna Fáil, especially as Dev Óg really controls the roost.

If Mairéad Farrell is the city candidate, she could perform strongly too but not enough to overtake her running mate.

And then there is Fine Gael. The party could have as many as four candidates in the election – Senator Hildegarde Naughton will run, in addition to its sitting Deputies Sean Kyne and Brian Walsh.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.