Despite its new leader Fianna F‡il is a party in disarray

Yes, I got my own website's address wrong last week . . . It should of course have been http://microcosmopolitan.wordpress.com - with no spaces anywhere. Come and visit. It's just like this column except it appears every day, it's illustrated, and I don't get paid for it.

But here I am now in Dublin, opposite the National Leprechaun Museum. Or as some call it, the Dáil. My heart is bright, but let's not celebrate yet. They can still damage the country right up until the moment of dissolution. Already the Government (if one can still call it that) has secured the support of Lowry and Healy-Rae on the Finance Bill. I dread to imagine what sort of backroom dealings were behind that one. Factories built in the middle of national parks . . . people actually making sandwiches out of money.

The outcome of the leadership race was fairly predictable. Micheál Martin looks like fine Fianna Fáil Taoiseach material. An innocent-seeming exterior disguising killer political instincts – I'm already thinking of him as Bertie II. But strategically, this was the poorest choice the party could have made.

The first mistake may have been to lose Cowen at all. Sure, Fianna Fáil's elders knew that campaigning under him would have led to an electoral slaughterhouse. But that might not actually have been the worst possible outcome. Making Cowen the scapegoat for everything was the best chance FF had of recreating themselves. After the election they could have chosen a new leader and declared themselves to be a new party, one no longer the servant of bankers and developers.

Now where are they? Still going to receive the worst electoral crucifixion in their history, but under the leadership of their Bright New Hope. It will in effect be a second, fresh rejection by the public. And that will be devastating. I would not be too surprised if Micheál Martin is the last leader a united Fianna Fáil ever elects.

The second best option would have been to choose a second best leader. Save Martin for the next election, and pass the poison chalice to someone more expendable. Hanafin perhaps. First female FF leader, it would seem fresh. Cynical, yet fresh. Or Lenihan; he sustained a lot of damage as Minister for Finance and his health problems militate against him ever becoming Taoiseach anyway. The dynasty has its back-up copy in Conor. Maybe it was time to play Brian's card.

But unfortunately for the leadership, it is easier to oust a leader than to ordain a new one. A shoo-in, as when Cowen replaced Ahern, was not possible with the party still in full headless chicken mode. Rather than take the long view, TDs ran to the one they see as the best hope for saving their seats right now. The man who significantly distanced himself from Cowen – by publicly turning on him. The party's reputation for discipline has never looked so ill-founded.

If you'd have asked me though, the ideal choice for leader was Éamon Ó Cuív. My reasons are less political than aesthetic; it's nice to have symmetry. If they'd elected Ó Cuív, the history of the Fianna Fáil party would have had matching bookends.