Will by-elections be a test of progress for united left?

So not one but two by-elections to look forward to, both of which will take place in spring, probably on the same day. The Galway West one was not really a surprise; Dublin Central certainly was.

That said, Paschal Donohoe’s appointment to the number two position in the World Bank was not altogether unexpected. His name has been linked with a number of global financial institutions in recent years.

In 2024, he was in the running for the post of head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) before the incumbent was reappointed for a second term.

He has also been the President of the Eurogroup of EU financial ministers since 2020, and the fact that he was easily re-elected was a sign of his standing among his international peers.

I had just thought that speculation on him going had more or less died down and he had committed to at least another Dáil term – but not so.

Of course, by-elections are never a great weathervane for predicting what parties will be in the next government. There was a period of 20 years when the Government parties failed to win a general election; that was only reversed when Labour won the 2011 by-election in Dublin West caused by the death of Brian Lenihan junior.

However, that by-election occurred only a few months after the general election and Labour’s stock was at a historical high. In addition, the party was fresh in the coalition and was still popular. That did not last very long.

The big new possibility that came out of the Presidential election was the prospect of the left uniting for the first time in Irish politics.

The fact that Sinn Féin, Labour, the Social Democrats, the Greens and People Before Profit all came together was a first in Irish politics and already has some on the left talking about it being carried on to the general election.

President Catherine Connolly herself believes that her campaign was the catalyst for a new movement and the possibilities for it include making the creation of a left-wing government in Ireland a reality after the next election.

And certainly, if the parties of the left were to come together they would certainly form a bloc that would challenge, and indeed surpass, that of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Pictured: Paschal Donohoe... change of direction.