Political surprises that come back to haunt at polling time

They call it the October Surprise; in US Presidential election campaigns, there is an expectation that something will happen in October that will throw one of the candidates off course or impact the direction the campaign has been going.

It happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016, when the FBI opened an investigation into her use of a personal email account. The matter had been looked into but just days before polling, on October 28, the FBI and its director, James Comey, said it had found new emails that "appeared to be pertinent" to its investigation.

Donald Trump pounced on the announcement and claimed that Clinton was guilty of grand corruption. Comey had shown “guts” he said by intervening in that manner.

Days later, Comey withdrew the criminal investigation, after reviewing the emails between Clinton and a senior aide, which were sent by private email rather than a government account.

It made no difference. By that stage the damage had been done.

We look like we may have our own November election here (but we are not 100 per cent sure as yet). It won’t be our first November election. There was one in 1992, when Dick Spring’s Labour won 33 seats. There was also one in November 1982, one of three elections that took place over 18 months during a fractious period in Irish politics.

The rationale behind having a November election is obvious, from a Government perspective. Both parties did well in the local and European elections and Sinn Fein failed to make seat gains on the back of its strong poll showings over the past two years.

It is clear that Sinn Fein took a big hit in the past year in relation to the immigration issues. Many people in working class areas who voted for Sinn Féin were of the view the party’s stance was too liberal on this matter.

I have written before that, for a long time, there was a disconnect between Sinn Féin’s position on immigration and the views of some of its voters, which was far more hardline. That became apparent during the course of 2024.

Pictured: Under pressure...Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald.