Either way, referendum will throw up a different reality
World of Politics with Harry McGee- [email protected]
By the time you read this, it will be almost over bar the shouting; and as you walk to the polling station you will be hit by more merchandise than an Ed Sheeran concert. If you were to judge support levels for the referendum to repeal the Eighth amendment on social media traffic, the Yes side would have an overwhelming victory.
But everybody knows that the contest will be closer than that, with Yes probably ahead but the gap between both sides closing. If doubt is creeping in in the minds of undecideds and soft Yeses, then it might be uncomfortably close, from a Yes campaign perspective.
And overall, you sense this campaign has not quite captured all public attention in the way the same-sex marriage referendum did in 2015, and abortion referendums have done in the past.
For all the noise, could the turnout still relatively be low? Remember turnout was only 53 per cent in 1983. And it was even worse in 2002, when the last referendum was held.
That will be partly dependent on turnout from the youngest voters. Voter registration campaigns as well as a huge focus on the young suggests they might vote in somewhere near the same volumes as they did three years ago. If that happens, a Yes victory will be more likely.
Galway City Council noted that there was a huge increase in the number of people who registered on the supplementary register before the deadline on May 8 compared to the 2015 referendum. It increased 87 per cent increase to 2,615 this year compared to 1,393 in 2015.
There were some major events this week including the second televised debate on Prime Time. This was critical for the Yes side, which was seen as the marginal loser in the opening debate on the Claire Byrne Show.
The kind of rowdiness that characterised the first debate was not allowed. There was another debate on Wednesday night on TV3, hosted by Pat Kenny.
So where is it? Well the polls all suggest a Yes victory but polls in referendums need to be treated with caution, as soft preferences sometimes go the other ways, and waverers have plumped for the status quo by voting No in the past. That said, it does look like Yes has done enough to stay marginally ahead.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.