Brexit passes history’s litmus test – for fall-out will be felt for years

The last week was spent in the National Archive getting a preview of documents from 30 years ago which will be released at the end of the year – and one thing that struck me was that stuff which seemed so important in 1988 is so easily forgotten now.

And interest won’t be revived for more than a day or two by articles in the media over the New Year – which got me to thinking of all the things that are happening in the here and now, and how many of them will be remembered into posterity.

The answer to that is precious few; broadband and the housing crisis will become footnotes, reference points should a future crisis emerge. The cervical cancer scandal will be remembered in the same way that the Hepatitis C scandal of the 1990s is still remembered. And the ‘Tuam babies’ is another story that will resist obscurity.

If there is one big story that will be remembered in 30 years’ time, it is Brexit – not least as its impact is felt in the years to come.

There is potential that this highly cavalier and dangerous decision by Britain could thrust these islands into a deep, deep recession that might take us years to emerge from.

The moment of truth was meant to happen this week when Westminster would deliver its final verdict on Prime Minister Theresa May and the withdrawal treaty.

As a political commentator I am usually loathe to make predictions because they tend to be as good at it as a flipped coin is at showing heads every time. I hate it because half the time I’m wrong.

With Brexit though it’s hard to look foolish when reading the tea leaves.

The shambles that unveiled in Westminster this week was so predictable, so patently obvious, so inevitably leading to everyone uttering the phrase: “I told you so”.

Well the versions of that phrase the British media used the following morning was not generous in describing Theresa May’s dramatic postponement of today’s House of Commons’ vote on the Brexit withdrawal.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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