Honeymoon period well over as Cabinet bedfellows re-examine their promises

Conventional wisdom has it that a new Government's honeymoon period lasts for three months – or the First 100 Days as political journalists dramatically portray it.

There was a cocktail of reasons why that rule did not apply to the Fine Gael and Labour coalition that came into place in February 2011. For one, the previous Government had left a political landscape that had been torched and scorched. In quick succession, the construction industry collapsed, the banks collapsed, the economy collapsed, and the Government collapsed.

In between, the dreaded International Monetary Fund was called into town and set Ireland the kind of 'challenging' austere and punitive targets that the scriptwriters of the Bourne series would baulk at.

Fianna Fáil and the Greens had imploded and both were going to make spectacular losses. For the other big two all they had to do was to make no promises and no commitments whatsoever and they would go into government in the perfect political conditions – things could get no worse and there were few expectations among the population that things could get any better. "We are all fighting over the carcass of Fianna Fáil," was Fine Gael's Brian Hayes memorable description.

But things never go according to script of plan. In the last week, Fine Gael's internal polls began to tell it that it was a whisker away from an overall majority.

Conversely Labour, which only six months previously had been touting Gilmore for Taoiseach, was now confronted with the scenario that it might have its best ever election but would still be left languishing in the opposition benches – 14 years after last being in power.

And so both parties did what political parties do in that situation. They started upping the ante and making promises and commitment that they knew deep down they would never be able to keep.

And the auction politics that marked that last election are coming back to roost – but we'll return to that theme in a moment.

The honeymoon period, it could be argued, lasted for well over a year. In spite of the rash of unwise promises, there was a general acceptance from the population that the new Government had been dealt a lousy hand. In addition, the intervention of the Troika and the existence of the bailout plan had left them in a straitjacket.

They still had no choice but to remove billions of euro from the economy each year. The only choice they had was how they would go about achieving it - and the Troika had its own strong views on that, too, so you could not say the Coalition had anything like complete agreement.

What also helped was that in the first year there was very strong cohesion in the Coalition. Sure, some four Labour Party TDs have gone overboard but the vast majority of the 33 remaining are strong loyalists and enthusiasts.

Fine Gael has been very dominant in Government and besides Croke Park there are very few issues on which its TDs could go out on a limb.

It's not the most democratic institution but the very core and centralised Economic Management Council, which essentially decides everything, has allowed its four participants – Enda Kenny, Eamon Gilmore, Michael Noonan and Brendan Howlin – to conduct the business of Government without reference to anybody else.

That means no leaks, especially to Cabinet colleagues. Kenny has surprised everybody with the ease he assumed the role of Taoiseach and he has had – on the whole – a very strong first 18 months.

Compare him to the dour, uncommunicative and indecisive Brian Cowen and he looks even better. There was also an understanding disposition in the population that the Government had a tough job to do.

For more, read this week's Connacht Tribune.