Mid-term votes offer an indicator after all

One of the cardinal rules for political commentators is to discount secondary elections – bye-elections, locals, Presidential and European – when it comes to indicating the lie of the land.

It’s because they are usually held mid-term and the received wisdom is they do not give a good guide as to what happens in the general election.

The reason for that stems from a history of strong governments having lousy mid-term elections. During its long period of power, Fianna Fáil had a number of indifferent local elections – and it made not a whit of difference when it came to the general election.

That phenomenon was probably at its most obvious across the water in Britain during the Blair years. Labour had some abysmal local elections, ceding shire after shire to the Tories and the Liberal Democrats. Yet Blair romped up in three successive wins.

These second-tier elections are usually held in mid-term when people don’t really care as much, or think as much, about their choice of government. And there are always a range of other reasons to vote.

Many councillors, irrespective of party allegiance, will win support based on their recognisability, and work in the community. European elections have become beauty contests, devoid of context or of issues.

They are all the reasons that they have stayed as discounted goods.

But a funny thing has happened in the past two local elections, in 2009 and 2014. They have almost exactly mirrored the support levels for each party. In 2009, the locals saw massive falls in support for the ruling government parties, Fianna Fáíl and the Greens. The latter lost 13 of its 16 council seats, ending up with only three.

That pattern repeated itself in the election. Both Fine Gael and Labour made significant gains in that election – signalling a surge for them.

The only anomaly was Sinn Féin. It had a poor election in 2007. It had a poor local election in 2009, returning about 50 seats, the same as it had. The swing towards the party started later, from the autumn of 2010.

And then in 2014, the local elections showed swings that would be repeated in this year’s general election. Sinn Féin almost tripled its seats. It was starting from a low base but it was now commanding support of 15 per cent, which it repeated in the February elections. Labour’s stock plummeted, losing over 80 seats and ending up with 50. Its seven per cent support is what it would get in the election. Similarly Fianna Fail rose to 25, with Fine Gael at 24. That was a proximate enough to their general election performances.

What does it tell us? Well, local elections are held closer to general elections these days (less than two years) and the big election does not seem quite so remote. Secondly, the State has been in such turmoil over the past eight years that parties have been on a general election footing.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.